|
| Roti Kapada Makaan Indicators: Aug 2010 |
|
FY
08 |
FY
09 |
FY
10 |
FY 2010 |
FY 2011 |
FY11 |
|
Avg. |
Avg. |
Avg |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
June |
July |
Q1 Avg |
| ROTI (Inflation Guide) |
| Wholesale Price Inflation |
4.7 |
8.4 |
3.9 |
8.1 |
9.4 |
10.1 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
10.6 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
| Consumer Price Inflation (IW)* |
6.2 |
9.1 |
12.3 |
15.0 |
16.2 |
14.9 |
14.9 |
13.3 |
13.9 |
13.7 |
- |
13.6 |
| Wholesale Food Inflation |
5.6 |
7.9 |
14.7 |
20.0 |
18.4 |
18.1 |
17.4 |
16.7 |
17.0 |
14.6 |
10.3 |
16.1 |
| Food grains |
4.7 |
8.1 |
15.6 |
20.2 |
19.3 |
15.3 |
13.7 |
11.7 |
10.2 |
9.1 |
8.5 |
10.3 |
| Fruits & vegetables |
4.0 |
8.7 |
12.5 |
20.6 |
10.7 |
14.8 |
11.3 |
5.9 |
7.6 |
4.9 |
-4.3 |
6.1 |
| Milk |
8.4 |
7.3 |
11.0 |
13.4 |
14.0 |
14.8 |
17.7 |
21.4 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
18.1 |
20.1 |
| KAPDA (Consumption Guide) |
| Auto & Related Sectors |
| Two Wheeler Sales |
-4.9 |
5.2 |
25.8 |
59.9 |
41.8 |
33.9 |
40.6 |
28.6 |
30.9 |
35.0 |
37.0 |
31.5 |
| Passenger Car Sales |
11.8 |
9.8 |
28.1 |
41.8 |
40.6 |
35.2 |
22.4 |
36.2 |
28.0 |
23.2 |
38.0 |
29.1 |
| Commercial Vehicle sales |
4.5 |
-19.9 |
46.7 |
162.7 |
131.2 |
88.7 |
63.8 |
68.1 |
61.6 |
46.8 |
30.4 |
58.9 |
| Consumer Goods Production |
| Durables |
-0.9 |
4.5 |
26.4 |
45.9 |
31.7 |
30.3 |
32.8 |
32.8 |
23.7 |
27.4 |
- |
28.0 |
| Non-Durables |
8.7 |
5.1 |
1.6 |
5.2 |
-4.7 |
1.6 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
- |
2.4 |
| Telecommunications |
| Mobile Phone Subscribers (GSM) |
67.4 |
52.7 |
48.6 |
47.3 |
50.4 |
50.0 |
49.2 |
48.9 |
48.7 |
48.7 |
- |
48.8 |
| Teledensity (per 100) |
26.2 |
37.0 |
52.7 |
47.9 |
49.5 |
51.1 |
52.7 |
54.1 |
55.4 |
56.8 |
- |
55.4 |
| MAKAAN (Investment Guide) |
| Industrial/Infra/Capex Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| IIP |
8.5 |
2.9 |
10.3 |
17.7 |
16.3 |
14.7 |
14.5 |
16.4 |
11.3 |
7.1 |
- |
11.6 |
| Manufacturing |
9.0 |
2.9 |
10.8 |
19.4 |
17.4 |
15.7 |
15.3 |
17.9 |
12.0 |
7.3 |
- |
12.4 |
| IIP Capital Goods |
17.3 |
8.1 |
18.1 |
38.7 |
53.7 |
44.0 |
30.8 |
69.9 |
34.2 |
9.7 |
- |
37.9 |
| Infrastructure Index |
6.5 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
6.4 |
9.5 |
4.7 |
7.3 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
- |
4.6 |
| Sector-Wise Growth |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Cement Dispatches |
8.3 |
8.3 |
10.1 |
11.6 |
12.7 |
6.6 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
8.1 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
6.6 |
| Aluminium |
7.5 |
7.2 |
15.1 |
10.1 |
8.6 |
13.39 |
16.4 |
14.2 |
3.9 |
0.1 |
- |
6.1 |
| Copper |
11.2 |
-8.5 |
8.1 |
25.8 |
-3.9 |
-17.4 |
-12.4 |
-9.1 |
-5.9 |
3.7 |
- |
-3.8 |
| Electricity |
6.3 |
2.7 |
6.1 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
- |
5.3 |
| Coal |
6.0 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
-2.3 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
- |
-0.4 |
| Steel |
8.4 |
1.9 |
5.1 |
9.6 |
15.3 |
0.9 |
9.2 |
4.7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
- |
3.6 |
| Crude Petroleum |
0.4 |
-1.8 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
9.7 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
- |
5.9 |
| Refined Petroleum |
6.7 |
3.0 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
3.8 |
0.7 |
-0.4 |
5.3 |
7.7 |
2.9 |
- |
5.3 |
| Money & Credit |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bank Credit Growth |
23.7 |
23.9 |
14.4 |
13.6 |
14.9 |
15.8 |
17.0 |
17.6 |
18.1 |
21.6 |
19.6 |
19.2 |
| Money Supply (M3) |
21.7 |
20.1 |
18.7 |
17.1 |
17.0 |
16.4 |
16.8 |
14.7 |
14.5 |
15.3 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
| Avg. Mortgage Rates |
10.3 |
9.8 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
| Trade Data (% Chg USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Import |
33.5 |
17.3 |
-0.1 |
32.4 |
34.8 |
67.3 |
77.1 |
43.3 |
38.5 |
23.0 |
34.3 |
34.8 |
| Non-oil Import |
30.8 |
14.5 |
-2.6 |
28.9 |
17.3 |
51.6 |
66.4 |
28.9 |
28.2 |
21.5 |
- |
26.2 |
| Merchandise Export |
25.0 |
7.6 |
-2.0 |
20.0 |
18.7 |
31.8 |
56.2 |
32.3 |
41.3 |
30.4 |
13.2 |
29.3 | Note: Data is annual growth in terms of % chg (except for teledensity and avg. mortgage rates); * IW= industrial workers; Source: CMIE, TRAI, MOSPI, Bloomberg, Commerce Ministry.
Roti: Inflation/Food Prices
Story so far: WPI inflation moves below 10%; food prices cooling
- India's WPI inflation for July rose 9.97% yoy, lower than market expectation of 10.4% after five months of double digit growth.
- The good news was that both manufacturing and non-food manufacturing inflation have been on a declining trend since April.
- But the bad news was that May WPI inflation was revised up to 11.14% vs 10.16% announced earlier, a revision of about 100 bps.
What to watch:
- Will the food prices start to come down sequentially due to good monsoon? Or the nutrient-rich foods like milk, egg remain stubbornly high on change of dietary habit and higher income?
- Will manufacturing products again start to rise after moving sideways for four months on secondary impact of fuel price hike and higher input cost?
- Whether the July inflation will be revised up to above 10% following the past trend?
Kapda: Consumption
Story so far: Consumption continues to remain robust
- The consumer goods grew at 8.3% yoy in June vs 7.4% yoy in May as consumer durables and consumer nondurables remained strong at 27.4% and 1.3% vs 23.7% and 1.4% in May.
- In recent past, high consumer demand has coexisted with high consumer price inflation.
- Teledensity improved again to 56.8 in June from 55.4 in May.
What to watch:
- Will the rising family income, more jobs, better outlook keep Indian consumers high tolerance for inflation intact?
- Will the consumer durables growth (like car sales) moderate as cost of financing slowly moves up along with rising prices despite new models?
- Will increased social scheme spending, higher minimum support prices for food-grains, normal monsoon boost rural income and rural consumption?
Makaan: Investment
Story so far: Industrial production moderates, Trade deficit widens
- Industrial production in June registered single digit growth of 7.1% yoy, primarily due to high base. But sequential month over month IIP (seasonally adjusted) moved up by around 2%.
- Anecdotal evidences indicate that consumption demand has remained strong. Part of the hindrance to industrial growth had been capacity constraints.
- Higher consumption and investment-related imports due to sharp domestic economic recovery as well as lower export on slower global growth widened the trade deficit in July to 22 months high to $12.9 bn compared with $10.6 bn in the previous month.
- Bank credit slowed to 19.6% in July from 21.6% in June, partly a quarter-end phenomenon.
What to watch:
- Will IIP remain in single digit due to both high base effect and slower growth momentum compared to that during recovery phase?
- Whether the short term working capital loan demand will remain low as corporate access ‘comparatively’ cheaper funds from the CP segment after the introduction of base rate?
- Will RBI still hike rate in Sept policy meet on underlying price pressure and high demand or pause due to tight liquidity?
- Will the capital flows be sufficient to cover the current account deficit and thereby keep pressure on INR low?
Disclaimer:
The views expressed herein are the personal views of the Economist. The views constitute only the opinions and do not constitute any guidelines or recommendation on any course of action to be followed by the reader. This information is meant for general reading purpose only and is not meant to serve as a professional guide for the readers. This document has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. The Sponsor, The Investment Manager, The Trustee or any of their respective directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information. Whilst no action has been solicited based upon the information provided herein, due care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and opinions given fair and reasonable. This information is not intended to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or instrument. Recipients of this information should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed investment decision before making any investments. None of The Sponsor, The Investment Manager, The Trustee, their respective directors, employees, affiliates or representatives shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material.
Statutory Details: Reliance Mutual Fund has been constituted as a trust in accordance with the provisions of the Indian Trusts Act, 1882. Sponsor: Reliance Capital Limited. Trustee: Reliance Capital Trustee Company Limited. Investment Manager: Reliance Capital Asset Management Limited (Registered Office of Trustee & Investment Manager: "Reliance House" Nr. Mardia Plaza, Off. C.G. Road, Ahmedabad 380 006). The Sponsor, the Trustee and the Investment Manager are incorporated under the Companies Act 1956. The Sponsor is not responsible or liable for any loss resulting from the operation of the Scheme beyond their initial contribution of Rs.1 lakh towards the setting up of the Mutual Fund and such other accretions and additions to the corpus.
Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risk, please read the Scheme Information Documents & Statement of Additional Information carefully before investing. |
|
| |
|
|